Back and Worse than Ever...

For the important people that use this blog to get all of their key information, I've decided to start blogging a bit. I definitely now see the appeal of Twitter, because you can be done blogging and get on with the rest of your fucking life. And yes, I am sitting...on the patio.

Here are a list of things that have happened since I've closed on the house.

1. Learned that on a gas stove, the bottom drawer is actually where the burners are. Two oven mitts, one fire extinguisher, and one small kitchen fire later, it was definitely a lesson learned.
2. I totaled out the only nice car I've ever owned. No more Crossfire....well, not that one anyways.
3. A group of friends were over and we got to see some guy in our back alley point a gun at another guy. Now growing up in southeast Missouri, guns really didn't bug me, everyone had them. In our neighborhood, and when the gun is pointed at someone else...definitely more agitating.
4. Our home has become a way for all our adult friends to get out of their parents house on Friday nights without putting in all the effort to actually get their own place.
5. The Cardinals have enjoyed Matt Holliday, as I knew they would. Your welcome, Mo.
6. I've grown a beard and now I look homeless.



Now let's move on....

If you like music, go to theusualband.com and download their EP for free. It's a young band (late teens, early 20s maybe) from Nashville that opened for James McMurtry, and they are quite possibly my favorite band at the time. Free music is good, good music is good, and legal music is good. Combine the three....it's all good.

Listen to January and Restless, and if you don't like it, kill yourself.

Until then.

Cards Make Atypical Blockbuster Move Near Deadline

I could hear fans all over St. Louis today asking the friend that told them the player that was traded to the Cardinals today: "Wait...did you say Halladay or Holliday?" I spent the entire All-Star Break trying to convince everyone that the bat plugged a more important hole than the arm, and at a more affordable price. Mozeliak agreed, and today the Cardinals inked the slugger for the rest of the season. It cost the organization Brett Wallace, along with OF Shane Peterson and right-handed sinkerballer Clayton Mortenson. After Oakland pitched in to help pay the 6 million still owed to Holliday this season, the Cardinals only paid 4.5 million for this season's rental.

Two hours in and I'm tired of hearing about how this trade is identical to the Mulder trade. With baseball, all you can do is try to make a move to help the ballclub make a playoff run. Mulder ended up being injured, which really couldn't have been reasonably foreseen. It was a move made in good faith that happened to fall on its head because of circumstances.

This trade is the same: Tony La Russa has been clamoring for this cleanup bat for some time, and he recognizes it's what the team needs. I think a pitcher can absolutely change the dynamic of a playoff race, simply look to CC Sabathia last season. But with Carpenter and Wainwright being as sharp as they are, you have to assume that those two guys anchor a rotation just fine. However Ryan Ludwick, as well as he's been swinging the bat, is not who you want in important games down the stretch behind Pujols. We need some run support for these pitchers. When you can have a pitcher that has a 3.09 ERA but still has a losing record (Piniero), it seems to me that you would want to generate more runs.

The Cardinals fixed several holes with their clever deadline additions: A lack of 3B production, a lack of a potent cleanup hitter, and a clear SB guy. I don't feel the rotation or the bullpen needs pre-empted any of these needs, except I would have taken a fifth starter over Lugo. I think the price was right on all three of the acquisitions.

The trades will make Tony salivate, giving him even more ingredients to change while trotting out a new lineup card every night. The hardest part for me is who to put in front of the pitcher. TLR doesn't like Molina for speed reasons, so I think it will typically go to De Rosa or the 3rd OF. Plus De Rosa and Lugo's infield flexibility make players like Barden, Thurston, and Hoffpauir much less valuable. Brendan Ryan, however, is still the best option at SS because his range is superior to Lugo's since he's been beaten up the past couple years. If Glaus comes up, it will even result in only more options for the outfield and maybe the hot corner.
Looking forward, if the Redbirds are blessed with good health, they will have an exciting run toward the postseason.

My lineups:

LHP Lineup:
Lugo 2B
De Rosa 3B
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ludwick RF
Molina C
Rasmus CF
Pitcher P
Ryan SS

Against RHP
Skip 2B
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ludwick RF
De Rosa 3B
Molina C
Pitcher P
Ryan SS

Banks' Sudden Need for Perfection is Buyer's Worst Nightmare

So my loan has been confirmed and approved, leaving only closing for things to go terribly wrong. I know, my optimism is infectious. This editorial in Fortune pretty much sums up everything I've learned about the current state of the banking industry. As I read this, I couldn't help thinking about all of the extra crap that they had to verify. The IRS wouldn't send my bank my prior tax transcripts, but they wouldn't accept the copies that the IRS faxed to me. So after a few efforts, I spent 2 hours on the phone with the IRS getting them to send my fax to my underwriter who already had the identical document. The IRS made me confirm that I was the one receiving the fax, so my bank essentially forced me to lie to the IRS. That is in addition to the fact that I didn't know I wasn't supposed to transfer money between my accounts, and that resulted in 5 additional forms having to be filled out, signed, and returned. All while my days to secure my loan were decreasing rapidly, and after having to extend the loan commitment date once. Thankfully, they confirmed my loan at 2:21pm (it was due at 5pm).

In the past, banks were always learning ways to push things through. Now, they not only make you dot the i's and cross the t's, but they also want you to cross the f's, dot the lower case j's, and put the slash in the capital Q so that we know that it's not an O. Proceed carefully and extraordinarily well-prepared if you're thinking about purchasing a home.

The Mang, the Myth, the Legend

So the All-Star game has come and gone, which had its moments and its letdowns. I will be posting some pictures up of the game in a while.

With the All-Star game in St. Louis, we really start to hear more of the national media acknowledging that The Machine is the best player in the world right now. As he goes into his 9th season, we are hearing less and less comparisons with current players, and more and more comparisons with the best in the Hall of Fame. This year he’s helped his cause, posting some fantastic numbers in just the first half. On pace for 57.6 HRs and 155.6 RBIs, he’s reaching base an astonishing 45.6% of the time, and he’s slugging .723. To put that in perspective, Alex Rodriguez has never had a season close to these numbers, his best effort getting him .422/.645 in 2007. In fact, when you see the treatment that Pujols has been receiving, it’s reminiscent of the true villain of baseball, B*rry B*nds. So, I broke down the numbers in two categories to gage where Pujols may end up in the history books.

HRs

To really get a true idea on how many HRs these guys are hitting, I’ve decided to add the ABs and walks together and subtract the intentional walks. I subtracted intentional walks because a player has no chance to put the ball in play. For simplicity, I will still refer to this stat as ABs. Albert Pujols hits a HR every 16.1 ABs compared to B*nds’ 16.27. McGwire was the best I’ve found, getting a HR in every 12.87 ABs. As far as current players with over 5 seasons, Alex Rodriguez is the only one better than Pujols in this regard with a HR every 15.94 ABs (Thome was 16.51, Manny was 16.74).

The implications? Well, considering that Pujols hits a HR as much as the current H*me Run King, and hits four more HRs than the Hank Aaron per every 162 games, it really just depends on his longevity. Even if he produces just 32 HRs each year (his lowest total to date and coincidentally the amount he has this year at the All-Star Break), he will break the HR record at age 41. B*rry broke the record (and hit his 762nd) at age 42. Hank hit his 755th at age 42 also. However, Pujols has emerged this year as a guy who can virtually be penned in for 45 dingers. He averaged this pace from 2003-2007 before he was bogged down by a few injuries that took some of his time and his power. If he were to achieve this lofty 45 HR estimate, he would break the current rec*rd at 38. So where do you draw the line? Let’s just say if he is lucky enough to have Bill James’ “perfect career” without interruption, he could hit 1,000 home runs at age 43 at a hypothetical pace of 45 home runs per year (a very large order, but not impossible).

IBBs

Pujols has almost matched his season high in IBB this year with 34 (he had 32 last year). If managers were given a mulligan, he’d have well over 40. Albert has 4 more IBBs at the break than McGw*re had in the entire 1998 season when he hit 70 HRs. Since an Intentional Walk is typically decided at the beginning of an at-bat and is executed properly virtually 100% of the time, I'm including all plate appearances when I calculate the IBBs/PA. Albert gets passed every 32.88 PAs in his career (every 12 PAs this year), compared to B*nds 18.32 career (and 5.14 PAs in 2004), and McGwire every 51 PAs.

How could intentional passes affect Pujols’ potential for the HR chase? In 2004, B*nds had 116 fewer ABs than his average due to intentional walks. However, he still hit 45 HRs that year. On the other hand, if Pujols’ treatment ever reached the absurdity of B*nds in 2004, and he starts getting passed 100 times a year, that could shave off nearly 7 HRs a year at the 16.1 AB/HR rate. That can add up over 10 or 12 seasons.

Albert is definitely primed to sail by everyone in the record books. And it can't be said enough that El Hombre is an all-around hitter too, not just a masher, which makes it all the more impressive. If Albert has just another 8 ½ seasons like the first 8 1/2, he’s undoubtedly a first ballot hall of famer and his name will become eponymous with baseball. And the funny thing is this guy may not have hit his ceiling, as we’ve seen this season.

After 17 seasons, if he replicates his first 8.5 seasons:
3,266 Hits, 702 HRs, 2128 RBIs, 2040 Runs, 110 SBs

Key Road Trip Begins Tonight

10 Games until the All-Star Break rolls into town. Most of the Cards won't see the field until July 17th, after the ceremonies come through. Molina, Pujols, La Russa look sure to see some action, and this Sunday Franklin may find his invitation in the mail as well. However, the Redbirds can't look forward to the ceremonies, or the time off, because the biggest games of the first half lurk right around the corner.

The Central has been a tough division through the first half, with 5 of the 6 teams within 3 games of the lead. The Cardinals will play 10 games in 10 days against 3 of those 5 teams beginning tonight. They will have 3 in Cincinatti, 3 in Milwaukee, and 4 in Chicago. They have a losing record this season against the Brewers and Reds, but have doubled up the Cubs, making their record agains these teams 13-13.

They should have Mark DeRosa back in the lineup, as his strained tendon is healing. Hopefully DeRosa will be able to pull out of his slump, as he could be a real key in his return to Chicago. Lohse will most likely come back for the evening game against the Cubs, the final game of the first half. Lohse's appearance will allow Wellemeyer only 1 more start to make his bid to stay in the rotation. After last night he only needs to pitch reasonably well to get the nod.

Matchups vs. Reds

Friday: Joel Piniero (6-9, 3.44) vs. Homer Bailey (0-1, 8.68)

Joel has pitched solidly, and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs since May 27th. The bad thing is that the Cards seem to not be able to get any offense generated with Piniero on the mound.

Homer Bailey was stellar in his final four starts in AAA, but got beat up pretty bad in his 2009 debut. The Redbirds are 2-0 against Bailey, and sent him away with a 14.73 ERA in those two starts. This matchup clearly looks to favor the Cardinals.

Saturday: Brad Thompson (2-4, 4.69) vs. Micah Owings (5-8, 4.63)

Brad Thompson hasn't had a quality start in his last three outings, and his last two starts the Cards lost with a combined score of 21-0. However, he has two more starts to prove he can handle the rotation, so maybe we will see some better stuff. But expect a lot of offense in this one.

Micah Owings has struggled, but came off a good start Sunday against the Indians. The start just before was a meltdown, though, as Owings allowed a career high 6 runs. Let's hope the Cards replicate that start, as 6 is a very serious number around here.

Sunday: Chris Carpenter (5-3, 2.42) vs. Bronson Arroyo (8-7, 5.69)

Carpenter struggled his last time out, but that was certainly unusual to see. We can probably expect Carp to shine in this game, and if he can keep the score low the Cards have a great chance to win.

Arroyo has struggled, posting nearly a 7.00 ERA over the past month. The Cardinals have good pop, so they are good candidates to extend Arroyo's NL leading 20 Home Runs this year. They just have to make sure they're getting good at-bats and getting on base.

So all three games in Cincinatti gives the Cardinals a good chance. No dominant pitchers, and no southpaws, while the Cardinals have two of their three solid starters on the mound. The Reds can score, though, so the Cardinals breaking out of their scoring drought (only 2.3 Runs/Game over their last 10) is going to be essential to win or sweep this holiday series.

Free Speech Restrictions not Granted: Missouri Loses

Although I am a fighter for the First Amendment, I do believe that there should be appropriate restrictions on these rights. This was brought to light Tuesday, when even though Missouri tried to pass a law restricting free speech within a distance of 500 feet of funeral processions. This was appealed by Shirley Roper-Phelps, the current leader of the Westboro Baptist Church, who believes military funerals should be protested, and God kills these soldiers to punish America for our degradation, mostly for harboring homosexuals. The Appellate Court of Missouri said that this law cannot be enforced until all cases have been settled. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court left this fight in limbo, as they refused to hear the case or comment. This leaves us back at square one, where this group can protest anywhere they want...and they do.

South Dakota and Michigan have successfully made these protests a misdemeanor offense. Illinois also passed a law, but the scope only extended to military funerals, but that isn't enough to keep them away. In fact, in March they protested the death of Dr. Fred Winters, a pastor who was shot inside his own church. Their detailed schedule says this about the event: "Here is the proper perspective on this whole, big stinking mess, to wit: So the shooter (sent by God) walked into the "church" (NOT!) and shot (bullet sent by God) through the false prophet's bible (probably NIV) and thereby embedded the words of that book (YIKES!) into the body of the false prophet. So is it fair to say that 'Fred Dropped Dead from a Bullet to the Head, and that book he should have read'...he died an open and shameful death." A shameful death, in his own church. How sad.

The Federation of American Scientists last year did a detailed report on the 1st Amendment and the many restrictions that it is subject to. For example, the Court has decided that the First Amendment provides no protection to obscenity, child pornography, or speech that constitutes
“advocacy of the use of force or of law violation ... where such advocacy is directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action.” Although Westboro can tiptoe around these laws, and although they carry around signs that say "God blew up the troops" and "Dead fags are God's will," they are careful not to "incite" or encourage any actual crimes. However, there are other provisions set forth in the context of the First Amendment that may be able to protect us. This is the concept that we as Americans have the right to avoid such speech, and if we aren't able to avoid this speech reasonably, our rights are violated. In 1988, the Supreme Court decided that “[t]he First Amendment permits the government to prohibit offensive speech as intrusive when the ‘captive’ audience cannot avoid the objectionable speech.” Frisby v. Schultz (1988)

This argues the prior point that we as Americans have the right to avoid speech that we feel is unwelcoming. For example, picketers can picket outside of an abortion clinic, a public area, but they cannot picket outside of the doctor's home. This is because the doctor lives there, and has no reasonable way of avoiding this speech. The only problem with this decision is the fact that this provision is vague and therefore hard to enforce. The First Amendment is a touchy subject, and people are reluctant to prosecute based on a provision with very broad verbiage. However, the funeral concept could apply here, since those going to a funeral would have no other reasonable options, as the cemetery is the only place to hold a funeral.

The only other recourse, other than reinterpreting the law as it has been written and amended by Congress, is the one that Missouri has taken. They've passed the law to make these safe zones around cemeteries (and should be extended to schools, police stations, churches, and libraries). However, one woman and her hatred for America and all of us in it, has appealed and won. And until it is settled by the Supreme Court, who didn't even as much as comment on the case, it will be unenforceable. I don't see this changing anytime soon, as the law is now in purgatory.

RetroBlog: My Pre-War Thoughts on Iraq

I found my first blog from when I was a freshman in college, and found this particular entry intriguing. It was three days before Iraq submitted the UN documentation confirming that they had disposed of their weapons and materials. George W. Bush claimed this "was not convincing," and 3 months later Bush declared war without Congress. 2 months after that he claimed victory in Iraq (May 1, 2003). Most importantly, it's 6 years, 6 months, and 28 days from the present day, in which we are still mired in war with Iraq. I'm proud to say my stance has remained concrete since the beginning, that Iraq was a clever bait-and-switch using the War on Terrorism that he was only able to do with the support of the American people, which he gained through tactics of inciting a dangerous level of Patriotism and ethnocentricism.

December 4, 2002

If what I see in movies and television is a true mirror of real life, then warheads aren't that big. Villains always seem to carry them around and hold them with ease. i have a feeling that if Iraq had these neat little contraptions, they'd put them under a mattress somewhere, or put a lampshade over them and pretend they're deco.

Not truly relevant to today's topic, which is the all-so-interesting raid on one of Sadam Hussein's palaces. Of course, Annan's Lackeys (UN troops) found nothing. Now that they found nothing, though, they were very quick to focus the issue on Iraqi cooperation. They played it off like it was some trial, just to see if they would let them in. Sure, Kofi...sure. Well, now that we know Iraq is cool with letting us in, why don't we focus back on the War on Terrorism? That's what we're good at...getting all riled up on one issue and then switching to another. Like Al Gore said to Larry King, "You solve problems by looking at them, devising a plan, and then enacting it until your mission is finished."

All Bush is doing efficiently, in my opinion, is rallying up PowerPatriotism. This is my term for the egocentric supreme race view that America has circulated since we've "been to the mountaintop and looked over." We may be the most powerful, but where are the terrorists? We gave up on them. Where are the weapons? We'll soon see...or give up. I am not against America. I am just against the War Thirsty Tactics that have been taking place. We can have all the intelligence, technology, and resources that we want. It still may not keep us out of the worst thing that can happen to a country...nuclear war and destruction.

Billy Mays is Dead; the Age of the Infomercial is Over.

How dare Billy Mays steal Michael Jackson's thunder? I mean, if we haven't went through enough tragedy this week, this tops it all off. I mean, how are we supposed to go on from here? Billy Mays is everything that was right about a free market economy.

In tribute, I've included this link of some of his greatest hits. In addition, I've listed some of the King of Mop's greatest products and taglines.

Zorbeez - "Zoorbeez attracts liquid like a magnet." The original Shamwow, but not nearly as good. But who cares, because the Shamwow pitchman is a lame headset-wearing nancy and Billy Mays is like Chuck Norris but better, because he could sell a walker to a Texas Ranger.

Flies Away - "Flies Away makes your home a no-fly zone! Flies Away Traps & Kills up to 20,000 flies!"

Mighty Mendit - "Sewing takes forever, but with mighty mendit just apply, gently touch and mend it!"

Tool Bandit - "The Tool Band-it™ flexible and lightweight magnetic arm band provides a safe place to keep all of your tools and parts!"

Big City Sliders - 'Big City Slider Station is the mini burger sensation that's sweeping the nation!"

R.I.P. Billy Mays (1958-2009)

Cards Land DeRosa

Here is the story of the day out of Cards' nation: They finally got Mark Derosa from the Tribe, but it took arguably our best young reliever. Perez is gone, which is a shame. And it probably means that if the Matt Holliday trade was still to happen, we'd lose Motte, too.

However, let us celebrate this momentus occasion by saying "Hey Lou, how's Milton Bradley working out for you? Aren't you glad you didn't resign Mark DeRosa? Why would you, with you being able to steal Aaron Miles from us and all. Fuck the Cubs!"

Update: Cards Intensify Pursuit of Holliday

I may still have less than 50 hits on this thing, but at least John Mozeliak is one of my readers. The Cards GM told Joe Strauss today that they are intensifying pursuit of Holliday and willing to offer Ludwick, one of the three young relievers (McClellan, Motte, Perez), and an unnamed prospect for Matt Holliday.

Just yesterday on this blog I made a pitch for Holliday in the previous post. His situational stats make him a great fit at cleanup, where is exactly where the Cardinals need to make their first step toward getting a playoff team on the field. In my opinion, this move increases the Cards' chance of making the playoffs by at least 20%. The one thing I would absolutely do as part of the deal is Get an Extension. If we're going to get this guy, let's get him for awhile. Rasmus-Pujols-Holliday sounds like the best 2-3-4 in the MLB over the next couple years.

Is this a Playoff caliber lineup?
1. Schumaker
2. Rasmus
3. Pujols
4. Holliday
5. Ankiel
6. Duncan
7. Molina
8. Pitcher
9. Ryan

These posts can also be found on www.redbirdrants.com, a Cards blog that I co-edit.

How Good are Our Redbirds?

The DL has given us back our players. Carpenter has given us Cy Young stuff. Nearly midway through the season Pujols has put himself on a pace to hit 57 HRs, 153 RBIs, and 20 SBs. And they've taken back first place and are 2nd in the NL. It's a team with more excitement around it than the '06 World Series team, but how good are these Redbirds?

After going a MLB-leading 16-7 in April, The Redbirds have gone 13-14 in May and 11-13 thus far in June. With all six teams in the NL Central being within 6 games, it's the biggest and the tightest division. As we look at Baseball Prospectus' preseason breakdown, we see some very predictions that may point toward Redbird Struggles down the stretch.

Baseball Prospectus has projected the Cardinals to win the division, and unlike our commentators at ESPN and the likes, these projections are based solely on stats. If you're unfamiliar with Sabermetrics, they are historically quite accurate. As we will see, the Cardinals are right on track for their projected record of 88-74 (87.5-74.4). Their other stats are also right on pace:

Batting Avg: .257 (projected .259)

OBP: .326 (projected .332)

SLUG: .416 (projected .427)

Sounds great, right? The only problem is that they have a team in this division that is definitely underperforming to a larger extent...and it ain't the Brewers:

Cubs Stats (projection)

AVG: .247 (.269)

OBP: .321 (.343)

SLUG: .400 (.430)

And they are on pace to be 12 games back of their projected 2009 Record.

They are also on pace to get 223 fewer runs than expected.

Interestingly the Cardinals, although on pace for the same record and basic batting stats, are on pace fo 134 fewer runs than projected (.83 Runs/Game). Then how are they still on pace for that nice record? Their pitching is way overperforming, on pace to allow 147 fewer runs than their statistics suggest they would. Although this sounds like good news, the fact is that our pitching staff will be hard-pressed to keep their ERA around 3.90 (4th in NL, 5th in Majors). The staff is full of contact pitchers, as they're 25th in Ks and have the 2nd fewest BBs in the majors.

So the key will not be to rely on this pitching staff down the stretch, because history has a tendency to repeat itself. The Cardinals will have to do two obvious things: Get on base before Pujols, get protection behind Pujols.

To get on base, the Cardinals have a great formula. The first time around the lineup we have Skip, a .300 hitter, leading off and Rasmus, LaRussa's prototypical 2-Hole (Someone with pop, and has only grounded into one double play this season, and someone who can move quickly around the bags). The subsequent times around the lineup Pujols gets the cleanup spot, as the #9 hitter acts as the leadoff batter for the rest of the game. This has been held by Brendan Ryan, whose .308 is 2nd on the team. Plus, he's a good fundamental player that can move pitchers into scoring position for Skip.

Protection behind Pujols is much more critical. Pujols reaches base a gawdy 45% of the time. Out of the 115 times he's been on base without a HR, he's crossed the plate 31 times (26.9%). To compare, the 3-Hole on the worst team in the league, Ryan Zimmerman, has reached base 108 times and scored 36 times (33%). Hanley Ramirez scores 41.8% of the time. To get this number up to this degree, the obvious answers are your 4-5 guys. That's where it gets sticky. Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan, Molina all come to mind, but the first three haven't been able to drive Pujols in consistently, and Molina simply doesn't have enough power.

Matt Holliday just so happens to be available. Even though he hasn't had a great year, with runners on he's hitting .318/.444/.555, which is leagues better than what we've mustered up so far this season. It's even better than Ludwick during his stellar 2008, when he was .302/.377/.554.

If no moves are made, this will be a tough second half as the Redbirds seem to be playing where they are projected as the Cubs will not continue to perform at the dismal level that they currently do.

Pug vs. Boston Terrier - Round 2

Here's the latest video of our Pug and Boston Terrier (yes, we're those people). If you like it, check out the others at youtube.com/rockyandreggie:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlQd_gyTnAI

Wellemeyer vs. Thompson: Thrive for Five

The Cards seem to be falling into place. Khalil Greene comes back, defends his new position capably, and shows some power. Brendan Ryan has been playing great and has earned a majority of the playing time at shortstop. Franklin remains solid as the closer. But Wellemeyer still struggles, and it raises the question: When Lohse returns, who is the #5 Starter? The two candidates, Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer, have been pretty aware that they are fighting for this rotation spot in their last couple starts. They've both been working with Dave Duncan, and appear to be approaching each start the same way: Warm up, pitch poorly, repeat.

Their last starts:
Wellemeyer 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 2.47 WHIP, 2 K
Thompson 5 IP, 5ER, 1.80 WHIP, 0 K

Their Careers:

Wellemeyer 4.62 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .490 Win Pct.

Thompson 4.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .471 Win Pct.

The Incumbent:
Wellemeyer has had a particularly rough year. His fastball hasn't been up to the mid-90s consistently, and his location and movement aren't fooling anyone. He leads the National League with 107 hits and is 3rd in Earned Runs. His ERA is at 5.85, higher than his 4.62 Career ERA, and his WHIP is 1.78. For every 9 innings this year, he's allowed an average of 16 walks/hits. His Stuff number is 0, which is at the point where you're encouraged to find a replacement. Cue up...

The Challenger:

Thompson started off as a very capable spot starter, but as the regularity of his starts increases, his performance has dropped off. His ERA stands at 4.72 and he's allowing 11.9 walks/hits for every 9 innings. His ERA has increased every year since coming to the majors. His Stuff number is a stunning -12, and it's much lower as a starter. He only has 2.4 K/9 this season to boot, which is the lowest number for a Cards pitcher this season.

So we can all see that the answer should be neither. But looking down to Memphis, we see P.J. Walters and Mitchell Boggs as the possibilities, but their stats stack up about as unfavorably as our two main competitors.

In fairness, Wellemeyer's BABIP has been .345, which is 80 points higher than the rest of the time with the Redbirds. Thompson's, on the other hand, has been .264, which is about 25 points lower than his career. So the bad luck has all fallen on the shoulders of Wellemeyer, and statistically he has the better chance to rebound. Plus, he actually has the stuff to overpower and fool hitters, and showed that last year when his ERA was below 4 and his Stuff rating was +11. Thompson has been a contact hitter with no dominating pitches his whole career, and has stepped up favorably as a spot starter.

So there's no right decision here. Even though stats show that Wellemeyer has the better chance to rebound, I would take a slightly different path. Upon Lohse's return, I would move Wellemeyer to the bullpen and work on his velocity. If he knows he only has about 20-30 pitches instead of 80-100, he can throw harder, which should improve his strikeout rate and keep batters off of the bags. I would put Thompson as the 5th starter, and see how well he performs. Down the stretch, if Wellemeyer has found a better command, move him back to the rotation. But the fact of the matter is, he's not ready to be in the rotation now, and Thompson can throw strikes and has a better likelihood of running into struggling offenses and getting them to get themselves out. Either way, it should be interested to see what LaRussa and company do when the decision comes across their desk.

Listening to: Todd Snider, Tales at Moondawg's Tavern

Mortgage Tips: Go Conventional and Out-of-House

Well, it turns out reading books to help you with buying a house only gets you so far. If anyone is thinking about buying a home, hopefully you read this first. I'm learning how big of a pain in the ass all of this can be, and hoping that it gets resolved before I lose my first home before I close.

1. NEVER TRUST A MORTGAGE REP THAT DOESN'T ANTICIPATE ISSUES: There are issues with every loan. There were quite a few documents that my loan officer told me I didn't need, and two weeks later ended up having two days to track down everly last damn one of them. Now my first loan commitment date has been passed up, and I had to have the seller agree to a later one. He could have taken my $1000 earnest money and ran. Just because everything was "no big deal" or "not a problem."





2. GO CONVENTIONAL: Now that everyone and their mother got foreclosed on, FHA loans have become increasingly demanding. If I had been informed properly, I would have gone Conventional. But since the closing costs and monthly payment were slightly lower on the FHA, I did that. But now the FHA won't approve you without confirming everything. I have astronomical credit, as I've manicured it since I was 18, and I had every dime needed to close, but I wanted the lower closing costs. It's a headache and the rate is typically higher. Save up for a 5% down payment and go Conventional.





3. GO OUT-OF-HOUSE: Do not use your current bank. It seems easier than going to get all of your bank statements on your own, but it leads to a point where they have TMI. Due to their knowing everything about my accounts, I can't use any money from my wife and I's joint account, even though I am the one who transferred the money there. That's because she's the secondary and I'm the primary. Also, the $1000 earnest money that we wrote from her account out of pure convenience now cannot count toward the money I need to close. Now all of a sudden were $3000 short, even though every dime we need is in the accounts (and $1000 already paid). If they didn't have this access, these issues would not have arisen. So go to someone who doesn't have access to your accounts, so you can choose what they see and what they don't. I got royally screwed by this.

As of this time, I'm $3000 short, and they can't even continue processing until I get it in my account. But I can't take it from Kassie's account, at the same bank. Plus my new loan commitment date is July 8th. I get paid Friday, but it is definitely ulcer time.

Listening to: Neil Boortz, Libertarian Talk-Show Host

10 People that Ruin America: #1 Michael Savage

First, let me make it very clear that I support the 1st Amendment and I don't think radio show host Michael Savage is an exception.

"The white Christian heterosexual married male is the epitome of everything right with America." June 17, 2009

This statement from his show on Wednesday gives a pretty strong idea of what this guy is telling his viewers. Let's see...racist? Check. Sexist? Check. Anti-Gay? Check. Religious intolerance? Check. His simply inciting hatred.

This speech is acceptable in America, but it belongs on a blog, a street corner, or a seedy comedy club. The issue that I have is that more than 10 million people listen to him every week, and there are several sponsors lining this pig's pockets so that he can propagate his hate to as many Americans as possible.

On Autism: "A fraud, a racket. ... I'll tell you what autism is. In 99 percent of the cases, it's a brat who hasn't been told to cut the act out. That's what autism is. What do you mean they scream and they're silent? They don't have a father around to tell them, 'Don't act like a moron. You'll get nowhere in life. Stop acting like a putz. Straighten up. Act like a man. Don't sit there crying and screaming, idiot.'" July 17, 2008 (click the quote for the audio)

10 million people. Every week. How many people out there now believe that autism is a fraud? This is a serious disease, folks. My wife worked with these kids for two years, and autism is a severely hard disease for the child and the parents. You have to raise a child that can't love you back. You raise and love a child but they can't look you in the eyes? But if you want to see lots of backpedaling once he realized his reign of terror could be over from the aftershock, check out his site http://www.savageonautism.com/ All of a sudden he's very empathetic to the cause.

On Gays: "Oh, you're one of the sodomites? You should only get AIDS and die, you pig...Go eat a sausage and choke on it. Get trichinosis. OK, got another nice caller here who's busy because he didn't have a nice night in the bathhouse and is angry at me today?"

Michael Savage believes that once we tolerate homosexual couples, our nation is doomed to fall apart at the seams. He was documented as being very close friends with flamboyantly gay beat poet Allen Ginsburg in the 60's and 70s, but when he died he said "I clasped my hands together and prayed to God. I said, 'Thank you, God, for answering my prayers. One of the blights of the human race is gone.' Even more interestingly, Savage wrote a fiction book about a character who tried to fight his homosexual urges "I choose to override my desires for men when they swell in me...waiting out the passions like a storm, below decks." In an interview with MSNBC he says that homosexual urges are intolerable, and one needs to conquer them. To me it seems clear that he is a repressed homosexual that has not only conquered the urge to be gay but has done it so well that he despises all those who are openly gay without remorse. How dare they not be ashamed in front of the eyes of the Lord!

On Women: "Fat-hipped women would consult a 75-page manual ... about what to do before the forest fire could even be stopped" when commenting on women's inability to take charge.

On Civil Rights (On Martin Luther King Day): "It's a racket that is used to exploit primarily heterosexual, Christian, white males' birthright and steal from them what is their birthright and give it to people who didn't qualify for it. Take a guess out of whose hide all of these rights are coming...There is only one group that is targeted, and that group are white, heterosexual males. They are the new witches being hunted by the illiberal left using the guise of civil rights and fairness to women and whatnot." Unbelievable.

On Swine Flu and Mexicans: "Make no mistake about it: Illegal aliens are the carriers of the new strain of human-swine avian flu from Mexico...If we lived in saner times, the borders would be closed immediately...Could this be a terrorist attack through Mexico? Could our dear friends in the radical Islamic countries have concocted this virus and planted it in Mexico? They are a perfect mule -- perfect mules for bringing this virus into America...I'll tell you what I'm going to do, and I don't give a damn if you don't like what I'm going to say. I'm going to have no contact anywhere with an illegal alien, and that starts in the restaurants. I will have no any illegal alien workers around me. I will not have them in any of my properties, I will not have them anywhere near me."

On Obama: "Now we have an unknown stealth candidate who went to a madrassas in Indonesia and, in fact, was a Muslim" (factually incorrect) "America's first affirmative action candidate about to become president," and Obama is the "biggest liar in the history of the presidency, and he’s getting away with it… because he’s a man of color”

On Lesbians: A "Loving, kind lesbian is the type that stuffed ovens in Hitler's concentration camps"

On Muslims: "intelligent people, wealthy people ... are very depressed by the weakness that America is showing to these psychotics in the Muslim world. They say, 'Oh, there's a billion of them.' " Savage continued: "I said, 'So, kill 100 million of them, then there'd be 900 million of them.' I mean ... would you rather us die than them?" Would you rather we disappear or we die? Or would you rather they disappear and they die? Because you're going to have to make that choice sooner rather than later."

Our society is always worried about what kids are being exposed to. What swear words we're hearing, what violence we're seeing. It's time for the kids now to step up and say to these adults "What the hell are you being exposed to?" This man is the reason that America isn't evolving, extending the same civil rights to Muslims and homosexuals that everyone else has. This hatred is being disseminated to 10 million adults, and is creating this new white supremacy in America. This hatred toward minorities and women and clamoring about how STRAIGHT WHITE MALES are the target of persecution? It's ridiculous. I have met with zero resistance everywhere I go. I've never been denied access, had people cross the road at the sight of me, assume I got a job because I was a minority, or been picked on and called names because of it. It's pretty fucking sweet to be the dominant demographic in this country, the only difference is I don't mind sharing it with everyone...and I sure as shit don't pity my whiteness, maleness, or heterosexuality.

ROLL CALL:

SPONSORS/STATIONS: Like I said, I don't blame anyone for exercising free speech. His just doesn't belong on public airwaves. They censor the word "retard" on basic cable now, but he can spout off hate speech on a public, free, totally accessible radio frequency? And people are sponsoring these words? Here are a list of some of Savage's reputable sponsors. Use alternatives when convenient:

Acura
American Express
Campbells
Direct Buy
Dish Network
Ebay Motors
General Motors
Hoover
Marshalls
Outback Steakhouse
Prudential
Purina One
Staples
Texaco
Chevron
Volkswagon
Geico
Home Depot
Wachovia

Tell Savage how you feel: paulreveresociety@yahoo.com

Listening to: Wu-Tang Clan - 36 Chambers

Jon and Kate Plus 8, Plus 2 Stepparents, 4 Stepchildren, and one Yellow Labrador

So to break in my Blog, I'm going to give my sentiments on this Jon and Kate spanking nonsense and roll call who all is to blame:

So on all the major news outlet home pages, we hear about the "spanking" controversy that Kate has recently found herself in. Apparently, it's true folks. I was out of sorts; I couldn't be happy with my own life knowing there is a 6-year-old child out there....s-s-sp-spanked! They have the pictures to prove it. Don't wory, I'm taking action. I've called Family Services, Dr. Benjamin Spock, and all concerned parents (of other children).

I have an idea...instead of focusing on inane bullshit, why don't the news outlets focus on how traumatic parading 8 young children around on a television set during a nasty, heated marriage and eminent divorce? I'm sure that kid will grow up, become addicted to drugs and the media, eventually hit rock bottom on a street corner in Atlantic City selling herself for a hit of PCP, and come clean in an interview "My home life was pretty good overall, but one time I was 6 and blowing a whistle and my mother physically...sniff...I'm sorry this is just a really hard thing for me to talk about."

Or...and hear me out...how about we not give a shit? Because we are whores for celebrities. We are the ones that shell out our money for these magazines, watch these VH1 shows, and even buy their shitty books about their insightfully insipid life. We're the reason this is happening, and why anyone cares about Octomom and Kate and all of these other talentless celebrities. Like who the hell are Heidi and Spencer? After seeing them on reputable news sites I asked my wife and she said "Well, they're famous for being famous." They're famous because we gave a shit. They're creations of our own imagination, and if we can just stop giving a shit, they'll go away.

Who's to blame for this Jon and Kate debauchle?

ROLL CALL:

• Jon and Kate: TLC said "We just got an offer from Satan. In exchange for your family's privacy and souls, we could make your world turn green." And she pricked her finger and signed, and had the sweet life while magazines and tabloids loved her. And now the taxman is around, and you have to pay up...with every secret you've ever held dear gets dragged through the hands of a blogging mob.

• "Those" Parents: You know who you are. The parents so scared of harming their child they'll forgo the occasional needed asswhipping in lieu of 40mgs of Adderall, which will result of years of depression and addiction in their 20's, but usually they're someone else's problem by then. If someone decides to spank THEIR child, shut the hell up. If they want to yell at their child, shut the hell up. This country has lost all sense of privacy and the concept of Mind Your Own Business.

• TLC: Ah, the LEARNING channel. Sounds so educational. Such good intentions with showing how a married couple can raise 8 children on their own. But when the show took a turn for the trainwreck, they hopped in the engineer seat and barreled full speed to the unfinished bridge ahead. It's all about money, baby...not learning.

• Entertainment Journalists: What an oxymoron. These journals prey on the inane, and our inner depravity that desires those who have more than us to suffer every layer of hell before they experience an untimely and entertaining demise...finally on the roll call...

• Us: We consumer whores just love our celebrities. We want to know what they're wearing, what they are naming their kids, and who they're screwing. But guess what, as much as we love them, we don't want celebrities to succeed. We love the River Phoenix, Amy Winehouse, and Martha Stewart twists and endings. We like to build you up as high as possible so that when you hit rock bottom we can vicariously feel the climactic ending as though it were the final scene in an epic movie you've been watching for years.

Listening to: Kings of Leon "Only by the Night"