Cards Make Atypical Blockbuster Move Near Deadline

I could hear fans all over St. Louis today asking the friend that told them the player that was traded to the Cardinals today: "Wait...did you say Halladay or Holliday?" I spent the entire All-Star Break trying to convince everyone that the bat plugged a more important hole than the arm, and at a more affordable price. Mozeliak agreed, and today the Cardinals inked the slugger for the rest of the season. It cost the organization Brett Wallace, along with OF Shane Peterson and right-handed sinkerballer Clayton Mortenson. After Oakland pitched in to help pay the 6 million still owed to Holliday this season, the Cardinals only paid 4.5 million for this season's rental.

Two hours in and I'm tired of hearing about how this trade is identical to the Mulder trade. With baseball, all you can do is try to make a move to help the ballclub make a playoff run. Mulder ended up being injured, which really couldn't have been reasonably foreseen. It was a move made in good faith that happened to fall on its head because of circumstances.

This trade is the same: Tony La Russa has been clamoring for this cleanup bat for some time, and he recognizes it's what the team needs. I think a pitcher can absolutely change the dynamic of a playoff race, simply look to CC Sabathia last season. But with Carpenter and Wainwright being as sharp as they are, you have to assume that those two guys anchor a rotation just fine. However Ryan Ludwick, as well as he's been swinging the bat, is not who you want in important games down the stretch behind Pujols. We need some run support for these pitchers. When you can have a pitcher that has a 3.09 ERA but still has a losing record (Piniero), it seems to me that you would want to generate more runs.

The Cardinals fixed several holes with their clever deadline additions: A lack of 3B production, a lack of a potent cleanup hitter, and a clear SB guy. I don't feel the rotation or the bullpen needs pre-empted any of these needs, except I would have taken a fifth starter over Lugo. I think the price was right on all three of the acquisitions.

The trades will make Tony salivate, giving him even more ingredients to change while trotting out a new lineup card every night. The hardest part for me is who to put in front of the pitcher. TLR doesn't like Molina for speed reasons, so I think it will typically go to De Rosa or the 3rd OF. Plus De Rosa and Lugo's infield flexibility make players like Barden, Thurston, and Hoffpauir much less valuable. Brendan Ryan, however, is still the best option at SS because his range is superior to Lugo's since he's been beaten up the past couple years. If Glaus comes up, it will even result in only more options for the outfield and maybe the hot corner.
Looking forward, if the Redbirds are blessed with good health, they will have an exciting run toward the postseason.

My lineups:

LHP Lineup:
Lugo 2B
De Rosa 3B
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ludwick RF
Molina C
Rasmus CF
Pitcher P
Ryan SS

Against RHP
Skip 2B
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ludwick RF
De Rosa 3B
Molina C
Pitcher P
Ryan SS

Banks' Sudden Need for Perfection is Buyer's Worst Nightmare

So my loan has been confirmed and approved, leaving only closing for things to go terribly wrong. I know, my optimism is infectious. This editorial in Fortune pretty much sums up everything I've learned about the current state of the banking industry. As I read this, I couldn't help thinking about all of the extra crap that they had to verify. The IRS wouldn't send my bank my prior tax transcripts, but they wouldn't accept the copies that the IRS faxed to me. So after a few efforts, I spent 2 hours on the phone with the IRS getting them to send my fax to my underwriter who already had the identical document. The IRS made me confirm that I was the one receiving the fax, so my bank essentially forced me to lie to the IRS. That is in addition to the fact that I didn't know I wasn't supposed to transfer money between my accounts, and that resulted in 5 additional forms having to be filled out, signed, and returned. All while my days to secure my loan were decreasing rapidly, and after having to extend the loan commitment date once. Thankfully, they confirmed my loan at 2:21pm (it was due at 5pm).

In the past, banks were always learning ways to push things through. Now, they not only make you dot the i's and cross the t's, but they also want you to cross the f's, dot the lower case j's, and put the slash in the capital Q so that we know that it's not an O. Proceed carefully and extraordinarily well-prepared if you're thinking about purchasing a home.

The Mang, the Myth, the Legend

So the All-Star game has come and gone, which had its moments and its letdowns. I will be posting some pictures up of the game in a while.

With the All-Star game in St. Louis, we really start to hear more of the national media acknowledging that The Machine is the best player in the world right now. As he goes into his 9th season, we are hearing less and less comparisons with current players, and more and more comparisons with the best in the Hall of Fame. This year he’s helped his cause, posting some fantastic numbers in just the first half. On pace for 57.6 HRs and 155.6 RBIs, he’s reaching base an astonishing 45.6% of the time, and he’s slugging .723. To put that in perspective, Alex Rodriguez has never had a season close to these numbers, his best effort getting him .422/.645 in 2007. In fact, when you see the treatment that Pujols has been receiving, it’s reminiscent of the true villain of baseball, B*rry B*nds. So, I broke down the numbers in two categories to gage where Pujols may end up in the history books.

HRs

To really get a true idea on how many HRs these guys are hitting, I’ve decided to add the ABs and walks together and subtract the intentional walks. I subtracted intentional walks because a player has no chance to put the ball in play. For simplicity, I will still refer to this stat as ABs. Albert Pujols hits a HR every 16.1 ABs compared to B*nds’ 16.27. McGwire was the best I’ve found, getting a HR in every 12.87 ABs. As far as current players with over 5 seasons, Alex Rodriguez is the only one better than Pujols in this regard with a HR every 15.94 ABs (Thome was 16.51, Manny was 16.74).

The implications? Well, considering that Pujols hits a HR as much as the current H*me Run King, and hits four more HRs than the Hank Aaron per every 162 games, it really just depends on his longevity. Even if he produces just 32 HRs each year (his lowest total to date and coincidentally the amount he has this year at the All-Star Break), he will break the HR record at age 41. B*rry broke the record (and hit his 762nd) at age 42. Hank hit his 755th at age 42 also. However, Pujols has emerged this year as a guy who can virtually be penned in for 45 dingers. He averaged this pace from 2003-2007 before he was bogged down by a few injuries that took some of his time and his power. If he were to achieve this lofty 45 HR estimate, he would break the current rec*rd at 38. So where do you draw the line? Let’s just say if he is lucky enough to have Bill James’ “perfect career” without interruption, he could hit 1,000 home runs at age 43 at a hypothetical pace of 45 home runs per year (a very large order, but not impossible).

IBBs

Pujols has almost matched his season high in IBB this year with 34 (he had 32 last year). If managers were given a mulligan, he’d have well over 40. Albert has 4 more IBBs at the break than McGw*re had in the entire 1998 season when he hit 70 HRs. Since an Intentional Walk is typically decided at the beginning of an at-bat and is executed properly virtually 100% of the time, I'm including all plate appearances when I calculate the IBBs/PA. Albert gets passed every 32.88 PAs in his career (every 12 PAs this year), compared to B*nds 18.32 career (and 5.14 PAs in 2004), and McGwire every 51 PAs.

How could intentional passes affect Pujols’ potential for the HR chase? In 2004, B*nds had 116 fewer ABs than his average due to intentional walks. However, he still hit 45 HRs that year. On the other hand, if Pujols’ treatment ever reached the absurdity of B*nds in 2004, and he starts getting passed 100 times a year, that could shave off nearly 7 HRs a year at the 16.1 AB/HR rate. That can add up over 10 or 12 seasons.

Albert is definitely primed to sail by everyone in the record books. And it can't be said enough that El Hombre is an all-around hitter too, not just a masher, which makes it all the more impressive. If Albert has just another 8 ½ seasons like the first 8 1/2, he’s undoubtedly a first ballot hall of famer and his name will become eponymous with baseball. And the funny thing is this guy may not have hit his ceiling, as we’ve seen this season.

After 17 seasons, if he replicates his first 8.5 seasons:
3,266 Hits, 702 HRs, 2128 RBIs, 2040 Runs, 110 SBs

Key Road Trip Begins Tonight

10 Games until the All-Star Break rolls into town. Most of the Cards won't see the field until July 17th, after the ceremonies come through. Molina, Pujols, La Russa look sure to see some action, and this Sunday Franklin may find his invitation in the mail as well. However, the Redbirds can't look forward to the ceremonies, or the time off, because the biggest games of the first half lurk right around the corner.

The Central has been a tough division through the first half, with 5 of the 6 teams within 3 games of the lead. The Cardinals will play 10 games in 10 days against 3 of those 5 teams beginning tonight. They will have 3 in Cincinatti, 3 in Milwaukee, and 4 in Chicago. They have a losing record this season against the Brewers and Reds, but have doubled up the Cubs, making their record agains these teams 13-13.

They should have Mark DeRosa back in the lineup, as his strained tendon is healing. Hopefully DeRosa will be able to pull out of his slump, as he could be a real key in his return to Chicago. Lohse will most likely come back for the evening game against the Cubs, the final game of the first half. Lohse's appearance will allow Wellemeyer only 1 more start to make his bid to stay in the rotation. After last night he only needs to pitch reasonably well to get the nod.

Matchups vs. Reds

Friday: Joel Piniero (6-9, 3.44) vs. Homer Bailey (0-1, 8.68)

Joel has pitched solidly, and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs since May 27th. The bad thing is that the Cards seem to not be able to get any offense generated with Piniero on the mound.

Homer Bailey was stellar in his final four starts in AAA, but got beat up pretty bad in his 2009 debut. The Redbirds are 2-0 against Bailey, and sent him away with a 14.73 ERA in those two starts. This matchup clearly looks to favor the Cardinals.

Saturday: Brad Thompson (2-4, 4.69) vs. Micah Owings (5-8, 4.63)

Brad Thompson hasn't had a quality start in his last three outings, and his last two starts the Cards lost with a combined score of 21-0. However, he has two more starts to prove he can handle the rotation, so maybe we will see some better stuff. But expect a lot of offense in this one.

Micah Owings has struggled, but came off a good start Sunday against the Indians. The start just before was a meltdown, though, as Owings allowed a career high 6 runs. Let's hope the Cards replicate that start, as 6 is a very serious number around here.

Sunday: Chris Carpenter (5-3, 2.42) vs. Bronson Arroyo (8-7, 5.69)

Carpenter struggled his last time out, but that was certainly unusual to see. We can probably expect Carp to shine in this game, and if he can keep the score low the Cards have a great chance to win.

Arroyo has struggled, posting nearly a 7.00 ERA over the past month. The Cardinals have good pop, so they are good candidates to extend Arroyo's NL leading 20 Home Runs this year. They just have to make sure they're getting good at-bats and getting on base.

So all three games in Cincinatti gives the Cardinals a good chance. No dominant pitchers, and no southpaws, while the Cardinals have two of their three solid starters on the mound. The Reds can score, though, so the Cardinals breaking out of their scoring drought (only 2.3 Runs/Game over their last 10) is going to be essential to win or sweep this holiday series.

Free Speech Restrictions not Granted: Missouri Loses

Although I am a fighter for the First Amendment, I do believe that there should be appropriate restrictions on these rights. This was brought to light Tuesday, when even though Missouri tried to pass a law restricting free speech within a distance of 500 feet of funeral processions. This was appealed by Shirley Roper-Phelps, the current leader of the Westboro Baptist Church, who believes military funerals should be protested, and God kills these soldiers to punish America for our degradation, mostly for harboring homosexuals. The Appellate Court of Missouri said that this law cannot be enforced until all cases have been settled. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court left this fight in limbo, as they refused to hear the case or comment. This leaves us back at square one, where this group can protest anywhere they want...and they do.

South Dakota and Michigan have successfully made these protests a misdemeanor offense. Illinois also passed a law, but the scope only extended to military funerals, but that isn't enough to keep them away. In fact, in March they protested the death of Dr. Fred Winters, a pastor who was shot inside his own church. Their detailed schedule says this about the event: "Here is the proper perspective on this whole, big stinking mess, to wit: So the shooter (sent by God) walked into the "church" (NOT!) and shot (bullet sent by God) through the false prophet's bible (probably NIV) and thereby embedded the words of that book (YIKES!) into the body of the false prophet. So is it fair to say that 'Fred Dropped Dead from a Bullet to the Head, and that book he should have read'...he died an open and shameful death." A shameful death, in his own church. How sad.

The Federation of American Scientists last year did a detailed report on the 1st Amendment and the many restrictions that it is subject to. For example, the Court has decided that the First Amendment provides no protection to obscenity, child pornography, or speech that constitutes
“advocacy of the use of force or of law violation ... where such advocacy is directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action.” Although Westboro can tiptoe around these laws, and although they carry around signs that say "God blew up the troops" and "Dead fags are God's will," they are careful not to "incite" or encourage any actual crimes. However, there are other provisions set forth in the context of the First Amendment that may be able to protect us. This is the concept that we as Americans have the right to avoid such speech, and if we aren't able to avoid this speech reasonably, our rights are violated. In 1988, the Supreme Court decided that “[t]he First Amendment permits the government to prohibit offensive speech as intrusive when the ‘captive’ audience cannot avoid the objectionable speech.” Frisby v. Schultz (1988)

This argues the prior point that we as Americans have the right to avoid speech that we feel is unwelcoming. For example, picketers can picket outside of an abortion clinic, a public area, but they cannot picket outside of the doctor's home. This is because the doctor lives there, and has no reasonable way of avoiding this speech. The only problem with this decision is the fact that this provision is vague and therefore hard to enforce. The First Amendment is a touchy subject, and people are reluctant to prosecute based on a provision with very broad verbiage. However, the funeral concept could apply here, since those going to a funeral would have no other reasonable options, as the cemetery is the only place to hold a funeral.

The only other recourse, other than reinterpreting the law as it has been written and amended by Congress, is the one that Missouri has taken. They've passed the law to make these safe zones around cemeteries (and should be extended to schools, police stations, churches, and libraries). However, one woman and her hatred for America and all of us in it, has appealed and won. And until it is settled by the Supreme Court, who didn't even as much as comment on the case, it will be unenforceable. I don't see this changing anytime soon, as the law is now in purgatory.

RetroBlog: My Pre-War Thoughts on Iraq

I found my first blog from when I was a freshman in college, and found this particular entry intriguing. It was three days before Iraq submitted the UN documentation confirming that they had disposed of their weapons and materials. George W. Bush claimed this "was not convincing," and 3 months later Bush declared war without Congress. 2 months after that he claimed victory in Iraq (May 1, 2003). Most importantly, it's 6 years, 6 months, and 28 days from the present day, in which we are still mired in war with Iraq. I'm proud to say my stance has remained concrete since the beginning, that Iraq was a clever bait-and-switch using the War on Terrorism that he was only able to do with the support of the American people, which he gained through tactics of inciting a dangerous level of Patriotism and ethnocentricism.

December 4, 2002

If what I see in movies and television is a true mirror of real life, then warheads aren't that big. Villains always seem to carry them around and hold them with ease. i have a feeling that if Iraq had these neat little contraptions, they'd put them under a mattress somewhere, or put a lampshade over them and pretend they're deco.

Not truly relevant to today's topic, which is the all-so-interesting raid on one of Sadam Hussein's palaces. Of course, Annan's Lackeys (UN troops) found nothing. Now that they found nothing, though, they were very quick to focus the issue on Iraqi cooperation. They played it off like it was some trial, just to see if they would let them in. Sure, Kofi...sure. Well, now that we know Iraq is cool with letting us in, why don't we focus back on the War on Terrorism? That's what we're good at...getting all riled up on one issue and then switching to another. Like Al Gore said to Larry King, "You solve problems by looking at them, devising a plan, and then enacting it until your mission is finished."

All Bush is doing efficiently, in my opinion, is rallying up PowerPatriotism. This is my term for the egocentric supreme race view that America has circulated since we've "been to the mountaintop and looked over." We may be the most powerful, but where are the terrorists? We gave up on them. Where are the weapons? We'll soon see...or give up. I am not against America. I am just against the War Thirsty Tactics that have been taking place. We can have all the intelligence, technology, and resources that we want. It still may not keep us out of the worst thing that can happen to a country...nuclear war and destruction.